Total nonfarm payroll rose by 227,000 in November, which is a sharp increase from the hurricane-disrupted numbers from October, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rose slightly to 4.2%.
But though October’s numbers were revised up from the paltry 12,000 to 36,000 — indicating hurricanes indeed affected reporting — some economists cautioned against too much optimism that the job market was once again seeing steady growth.
“To see the true picture, it’s essential to average this report with the prior month,” Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, said in a statement. “Doing so reveals a continued slowdown.”
Pollak pointed to growing slack in the market that can’t be fully pinned on demographic shifts such as an aging population or immigration changes, including a drop in the prime-age employment ratio (those aged 25 to 54).
Becky Frankiewicz, president of ManpowerGroup North America and chief commercial officer, noted that it is taking longer to fill roles “as employers hold out for the perfect fit or pause on making decisions.”
Indeed’s economist suggested that the future of labor will depend in part on the approach of the new administration entering the White House in January.
“While the economy remains on the trajectory toward a soft landing as we move toward 2025, the outcome remains unclear, as economic outcomes will depend on how policymakers pilot the plane and what objectives they prioritize next year,” Cory Stahle, economist for Indeed Hiring Lab, said in a statement.