Total nonfarm payroll rose by 151,000 in February while unemployment inched up to 4.1%, according to the March 7 report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
While largely considered an overall steady report, the data has already begun to capture business uncertainty in the wake of new policies, economists said, particularly as the Trump administration continues to cull the federal workforce and attempt to enforce tariffs.
“[T]oday’s employment report, which was higher than last month’s but lower than the last six-months’ average, suggests that the labor market remains frozen in place,” UKG Lead Economist Edward Hearn said in a statement.
The federal government lost 10,000 jobs in February, according to BLS, but due to the timing of when data is gathered for these reports, it is highly likely that the brunt of these losses may not be seen until later reports, Cory Stahle, economist for Indeed Hiring Lab, said.
However, construction may be the “canary in the coal mine,” Hearn said, regarding ongoing instability. Expanded tariffs and labor disruptions due to potential deportations may have led to declines in working activity for that industry, he said, on top of the effects of high interest rates.
Restaurants, too, are beginning to feel the squeeze, shedding 27,500 jobs in February — another potential sign of trouble, since the industry often serves as an entry point to the labor market, Julia Pollak, ZipRecruiter’s chief economist, said in a statement.
“Going forward, the full impacts of all the new policies, proposals and abrupt reversals that are the hallmarks of this administration will begin to shape the official statistics — good, bad or indifferent,” Stahle said in a statement. “The ability of the market to continue to maintain its ‘business as usual’ momentum will be tested, and the anticipated soft economic landing continues to hang in the balance.”