Labor market could face a ‘white-collar recession,’ report finds

The U.S. job market is experiencing fragmentation, with desk-based jobs seeing a rise in applications while demand for front-line and hourly roles slows down, according to a May 14 report from Employ Inc.

Although overall employment remains strong, certain segments of the labor market are evolving due to changing demands, the report found.

“This is no longer a one-size-fits-all labor market,” Stephanie Manzelli, chief human resources officer at Employ, said in a statement.

“We’re seeing two very different job markets emerge — one overwhelmed with applications and another starved for talent,” Manzelli said. “Businesses need to reassess and refine hiring processes to ensure they are meeting the needs of today’s dynamic candidate market, especially as we continue to see certain sectors being significantly impacted by layoffs or new college grads getting ready to graduate.”

For instance, job postings for desk-based workers have declined year over year, “creating bottlenecks of qualified talent competing for a shrinking number of roles,” the Employ report said. 

In a survey of more than 1,500 U.S. adults, 82% of respondents reported foreseeing a “white-collar recession,” and 66% reported feeling burnt out by a stagnant market. In general, desk-based workers interview more often than those in front-line roles, especially among remote workers versus fully on-site workers.

To reduce applicant fatigue, desk-based employers can streamline hiring processes, prioritize skills-based hiring and ensure accurate job descriptions to reach the right candidates, Employ said. 

In addition, front-line employers can invest in recruitment marketing, on-the-job training and broader talent pipelines, the report found.

Although the April jobs report remained strong, additional labor market changes could be on the way, economists told HR Dive. The U.S. economy has remained stable amid uncertainty so far, they said, but business and consumer confidence appear to be souring.

As the Class of 2025 enters the job market, college graduates could face tight competition for fewer jobs, according to a report by Handshake. Although most graduates said they’re ready to show up for work prepared, about half expressed pessimism about starting their careers in the current economy.

Currently employed workers have also expressed concerns about rising unemployment and additional job losses, according to a Bank of America report. Consumers are spending more on major expenses, such as housing, insurance, car payments and utilities, while spending less on groceries, restaurants, electronics and travel.